Crypto Warfare and a New Gold Standard
Years of sanctions have substantially weakened the Iranian economy, as evidenced by Iran’s keenness to have them cancelled, with sanctions removal a key sticking point in negotiations with the U.S. before Israel began bombing Iranian nuclear sites on June 13. But anyone who thinks sanctions are an all-powerful tool should spend some time speaking to Tehran businessmen. The exchange houses in the bazaar in Tehran can arrange money transfers to and from anywhere you like, no matter what the Office of Foreign Assets Control says.
It’s all coordinated via encrypted messaging apps and, as long as you’re transacting with a major centre like London, Paris or New York, your cash will be ready for collection within a couple of hours. “You can get paid electronically if you have a bank account. You need to be a bit careful about having lots of random payments coming into your account, but otherwise it’s straightforward,” one Iranian told me.
The trick is the same one used at various times and on various continents in Chinese Underground Banking, hawala transfers, or the Black Market Peso Exchange, all of which also exist to provide financial services outside the Western-dominated financial system. Instead of moving money electronically through bank accounts, they transfer value through the trade network, something that Western policy makers really struggle to get a grip of, not least because they often don’t understand what’s going on.
A DIGITAL ACT OF WAR
Cryptocurrencies have really supercharged these networks because, instead of moving value in a shipload of used cars or a container of designer handbags, which take weeks to reach their final destination and are cumbersome to buy, move and sell, they can be shifted quickly, easily and with minimal time delay. Hawaladars can now shift value between countries with their phones, and the sarafis in Tehran are all using Tether, despite the fact they’re not supposed to (I mean, neither are Venezuelans, but that hasn’t stopped the national oil company).
This is why last week’s hack by the Israel-linked group Predatory Sparrow (who are presumably unrelated to calypso king Mighty Sparrow, but I’ll take any excuse to link to this banger) is so interesting. By raiding $90 million from Tehran’s Nobitex crypto exchange it was striking a blow against the informal financial ties between Iranians and the rest of the world. The lost cryptocurrencies included, according to Chainalysis, “Bitcoin, Ethereum, Dogecoin, Ripple, Solana, Tron, and Ton” although the hackers didn’t actually steal them but instead sent them to addresses from which they could not be retrieved, which is a bit like raiding a bank and burning all the currency in its vaults. Elliptic, however, noted that dollar-backed stablecoins may be among the stolen crypto.
Stablecoins are different to other cryptocurrencies in that their value rests on something other than the forces of supply and demand – in Tether’s case, that is the dollar – and the companies that issue them own large stocks of real-world assets to protect the price peg. The strange consequence of this is that while America’s allies use stablecoins to escape the dollar financial system, they are in effect supporting that system by maintaining demand for U.S. Treasuries.
ALL THAT GLITTERS IS CRYPTO
They are not entirely happy about this, which is why they have been investing so heavily in the other great reserve asset: gold, the price of which has hit high after high after high this year. And this raises the fascinating prospect of a gold-backed stablecoin taking off, giving all the advantages of Tether but without having to support the U.S. government.
“The rise of gold-backed currencies that circumvent the US banking system, coupled with sanctioned regimes’ growing interest in the adoption of alternative currencies and payment systems, could create a massive blind spot for US financial intelligence and sanctions enforcement efforts,” argues the Atlantic Council in an acute analysis. It suggests that Western countries should stop spraying sanctions around like they’re antibiotics on a pig farm, or such a future will come to pass sooner than anyone would think possible.
It’s a warning that seems to be falling on deaf ears in Washington, where congresspeople are busy debating ever-higher sanctions, and where businesspeople are busy riding the crypto wave. The latest deal is the appearance of Tron on Nasdaq via a reverse merger, which is good news for the company’s Chinese-born founder Justin Sun. As you may remember, a probe by US regulators into Sun’s activities was paused after he made a $75 million investment into the Trump family’s crypto firm World Liberty Financial last year.
This was not the only Trump dividend from the family partnership with Tron, a blockchain blamed for 58 percent of all illicit activity in the crypto world, since two of the president’s sons in February joined the advisory board of the bank that organised the reverse merger. On top of that, Tron has started minting the Trump family’s own stablecoin USD1, which will help increase the first family’s already large crypto dividend.
In case you’re concerned that the business ties between Sun and the Trump family might lead to a conflict between the president’s personal and public interests, however, there is no need to be. “President Trump is dedicated to making America the crypto capital of the world,” White House spokesperson Anna Kelly has said. “His assets are in a trust managed by his children, and there are no conflicts of interest.” I don’t remember everyone being quite so accepting that Hunter Biden’s business interests were separate to those of his father, but of course that was a very long time ago.
A version of this story was published in this week’s Oligarchy newsletter. Sign up here.