The fall of Bashar al-Assad made for a stunning end to the year. On Sunday, December 15, hundreds of our readers and members gathered online to discuss the seismic shifts of the last few weeks. They heard from an outstanding group of journalists, activists and analysts in Damascus, Kyiv, Tbilisi, London and Washington to discuss the implications for Russian power and the global battle between authoritarians and democrats. The full discussion is well worth your while, but here we offer a sample of their acute readings, of insights gleaned from personal experience on the ground and hard won knowledge.
In Damascus, as over half a century of iron-fisted dictatorship crumbled to dust, journalist Zeina Shahla described the atmosphere:
- “I have lived in Damascus through all the years of the war, and this week has been like nothing else. The first two days were really violent. Now, though, people are back at work, shops are open, somehow life is becoming normal. The future is still ambiguous. We got rid of a dictatorship that was ruining the country. We’re waiting, though, for news about the detainees. There are more than 100,000 disappeared persons in Syria but only a few thousand have been freed. I’m still meeting each day with people who say ‘we’re searching for our loved ones. In prisons and hospitals.’ And there are many things to worry about – the economy, education, freedom of speech, freedom for women. But we have a rare chance to build something that unites all Syrians and to ensure that the Syria we are dreaming of is going to be inclusive.”
Dialing in from a night bus making its way to Kyiv from Damascus, Oz Katerji, a British-Lebanese war correspondent and documentary filmmaker who is based in the Ukrainian capital, told us that what happened in Syria “really did feel like a slide backwards for autocracy”:
- “The story of the last 10 years has been autocrats in the ascendancy, with the interventions of Russia and Iran. So for all this to be undone in 13 days has sent a shockwave through the international community. What I saw in Damascus was a people free and expressing themselves in public for the first time in their lives. It has struck a hammer blow at Vladimir Putin’s ‘Dictatorship Protection Service’, putting a dent in his projection of both hard and soft power not only in the Middle East but also in Africa where he has been propping up dictatorships and involving himself in civil wars.”
The fall of Bashar al-Assad, as Katerji points out, has implications far beyond Syria’s borders. Not least in Tbilisi, where protests have been continuing for over two weeks against the Kremlin-friendly government’s decision to suspend EU integration. According to Batu Kutelia, a former Georgian ambassador to the United States:
- “Georgia is more than Georgia. It’s not only about a tiny nation on the eastern shore of the Black Sea. It’s part of a bigger equation and it is in the pragmatic interests of the democratic world to make democracy inspiring again and not to let authoritarians claim another success story.”
Kutelia was echoed by the Georgian photojournalist Mariam Nikuradze, a co-founder of the English-language news platform Open Caucasus Media who just days ago discovered that she was on a police wanted list for her coverage of the nightly demonstrations:
- “I don’t see the spirit of protestors dying anytime soon. Being a journalist in Georgia has never been so dangerous. So many of my friends have been injured. But it just makes people angrier and they are not giving up. It’s very hard to predict what will happen but it’s getting harder and harder for this government to hold onto power.”
What happened in Syria, Nikuradze told us, “gives hope.” But, as the Ukrainian human rights lawyer and Nobel laureate Oleksandra Matviichuk pointed out, the path ahead is long and fraught:
- “We are losing freedom. This year, half the population of the Earth had elections. But don’t be naive, 80% of the world lives in non-free or partially free societies. This means that people who have a real right to vote are in the minority. The problem is not just the fact that in authoritarian countries the space for freedom is shrinking to the size of a prison cell, the problem is that even in democracies people start to question the Universal Declaration of Human Rights. Freedom is very fragile. We have to support each other in our fight for freedom because we live in an interconnected world and only the spread of freedom makes the world safer.”
Writer Peter Pomerantsev, a contributing editor at Coda, is currently in Kyiv, where he was born though he was educated in Britain and lives in Washington, DC. Picking up on Matviichuk’s remarks about interconnectedness, he argued:
- “If you listen to someone like [U.S. vice president-elect] JD Vance, he says ‘we need to get away from the foreign policy of values, that’s been a disaster. We need to just think about our self-interest and security.’ But these things aren’t necessarily opposed and they don’t need to be opposed. Ukraine’s freedom will make the West more secure. If Georgia can maintain its freedom, it is so important for counterbalancing Russia’s ability and China’s ability to dominate possession of natural resources and dominate the Black Sea therefore undermining America’s security and economy. I wonder if we’re at a point here where we can get beyond this very, very cruel but also stupid idea that you should split apart values and interests, that they’re antithetical.”
Edward Lucas, a London-based former journalist and prospective parliamentary candidate in the 2024 British election, did, however, strike a note of caution:
- “There’s a kind of wishful magical thinking that it ought to be obvious to everybody that Georgia is at a geopolitical crossroads and therefore it’s in the vital interest of the West to intervene to keep it out of Russia’s clutches and make it the fulcrum of Euro-Atlantic security in the Caucasus. I do worry that we’re in danger of thinking that people like JD Vance will eventually see reason because reason is ultimately reasonable but they’re coming from a different place.”
